Flood Peak Discharge Trend over Iran

Document Type : Original Research

Authors
M. Vafakhah 1
H. Beigi 2
K. Sadeghian 2
H. Khodamoradi 2
S. Karimi Breshneh 2
F. Daeichini 3
S. Hossinpour 3
S. Derakhti 3
1 Professor (Corresponding Author), Department of Watershed Management Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, Tarbiat Modares University, Noor, Mazandaran, Iran
2 Ph.D. Students of Watershed Management Sciences and Engineering, Department of Watershed Management Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, Tarbiat Modares University, Noor, Mazandaran, Iran
3 Ph.D. Student of Watershed Management Sciences and Engineering, Department of Watershed Management Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, Tarbiat Modares University, Noor, Mazandaran, Iran
10.22034/ECOPERSIA.12.3.219
Abstract
Aims: Studying flood peak discharge trends is crucial to disaster risk reduction in developing countries like Iran. This study aims to analyze the instantaneous peak discharge trend in 301 hydrometric gauge stations using Mann Kendal (MK (and Sen’s Slope estimator tests over Iran.

Material & Methods: Data on all existing hydrometric gauge stations in Iran were downloaded from Iran Water Resources Management Company. The hydrometric gauge stations with at least 20 years of data were selected, and the stations that were then affected by the dams were removed. Trend analyses of instantaneous peak discharge were conducted using MK and Sen’s slope estimator tests.

Findings: The results showed that out of 301 hydrometric stations, 259 stations have no trend, only three stations have a decreasing trend, and 39 stations have an increasing trend. This trend is more evident in southwestern Iran, where the increase in agriculture, human activity, and climate change is more evident. In the watershed of the eastern border, only one station has a decreasing trend; in the central plateau, four stations have a decreasing trend, and the rest have no trend.

Conclusion: Due to the importance of peak discharge in flood damage, this research can help managers and decision-makers in integrated watershed management. For example, in flood control projects, as well as designing the dimensions of structures such as retard dams, levees, the height of flood control walls, and bridges.
Keywords
Climate Change
Mann-Kendall
Integrated watershed management
Flood
Iran

Subjects

1. Norouzi G, Taslimi M. The impact of flood damages on production of Iran’s Agricultural Sector. Middle East J Sci Res. 2012; 12:921-6. https://doi.org/10.5829/idosi.mejsr.2012.12.7.1783.
2. Pawar U, Try S, Muttil N, Rathnayake U, Suppawimut W. Frequency and trend analyses of annual peak discharges in the Lower Mekong Basin. Heliyon. 2023; 1;9(9). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e19690.
3. Saatsaz M. A historical investigation on water resources management in Iran. Environment, Development and Sustainability. 2020; Mar;22(3):1749-85. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-018-00307-y.
4. Madani K, AghaKouchak A, Mirchi A. Iran’s socio-economic drought: challenges of a water-bankrupt nation. Iranian Studies. 2016; 49(6):997-1016. https://doi.org/10.1080/00210862.2016.1259286.
5. Collins G. "Iran’s Looming Water BankruptcyJames A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy. 2017; https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/irans-looming-water-bankruptcy/.
6. Ketabchy M. Investigating the impacts of the political system components in Iran on the existing water bankruptcy. Sustainability. 2021; 10;13(24):13657. https://doi.org/10.3390/su132413657.
7. Goharian E, Azizipour M. Integrated Water Resources Management in Iran. Integrated Water Resource Management: Cases from Africa, Asia, Australia, Latin America and USA. 2020; 101-14. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-16565-9_9
8. Zhang X, Harvey KD, Hogg WD, Yuzyk TR. Trends in Canadian streamflow. Water Resources Research. 2001; 37(4):987-98. https://doi.org/10.1029/2000WR900357.
9. Gharekhani A, Ghahreman N. Seasonal and annual trend of relative humidity and dew point temperature in several climatic regions of Iran. Soil. Water. Res. 2010; 24(4). https://doi.org/10.22067/JSW.V0I0.3883
10. Feizi V, Mollashahi M, Farajzadeh M, Azizi G. Spatial and temporal trend analysis of temperature and precipitation in Iran. Ecopersia. 2014; 2(4):727-42. https://doi.org/20.1001.1.23222700.2014.2.4.3.6
11. Nazeri Tahrudi M, Khalili K, Ahmadi F. Spatial and regional analysis of precipitation trend over Iran in the last half of century. Soil. Water. Res. 2016; 30(2):643-54. https://doi.org/10.22067/JSW.V30I2.39130
12. Ahmadi F, Nazeri Tahroudi M, Mirabbasi R, Khalili K, Jhajharia D. Spatiotemporal trend and abrupt change analysis of temperature in Iran. Meteorol. Appl. 2018; 25(2):314-21. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1694
13. Yacoub E, Tayfur G. Trend analysis of temperature and precipitation in Trarza region of Mauritania. J. Water. Clim Change. 2019; 10(3):484-93. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2018.007
14. Yousefi Malekshah M, Ghazavi R, sadatinejad S. Evaluating the Effect of Climate Changes on Runoff and Maximum Flood Discharge in the Dry Area (Case Study: Tehran-Karaj Basin). Ecopersia 2019; 7 (4) :211-221. http://ecopersia.modares.ac.ir/article-24-32094-en.html
15. Das S, Banerjee S. Investigation of changes in seasonal streamflow and sediment load in the Subarnarekha-Burhabalang basins using Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests. Arab. J. Geosci. 2021; 14(11):946. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-07313-x
16. Khosravi A, Azari M. Spatio-temporal trend and change detection of temperature and precipitation of Kashafroud basin. J. Appl. Res. Geograph. 2022; 22(66):289-306. https://doi.org/10.52547/jgs.22.66.289
17. Bazarzhapov TZ, Shiretorova VG, Radnaeva LD, Nikitina EP, Sodnomov BV, Tsydypov BZ, et al. Trend Analysis of Precipitation, Runoff and Major Ions for the Russian Part of the Selenga River Basin. Water-Sui. 2023; 15(1):197. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15010197
18. Bayat-Afshary, N, and Danesh-Yazdi, M. Are the magnitude and frequency of floods increasing in Iran due to climate change? Implications from a 50-year analysis. Hydrological Sciences Journal. 2023; 68.15 2243-2261.‌https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2023.2259904
19. Najafi MS, Alizadeh O. Climate zones in Iran. Meteorological Applications. 2023; 30(5):e2147. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2147.
20. Yue S, Pilon P, Cavadias G. Power of the Mann–Kendall and Spearman's rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series. Journal of Hydrology. 2002; 259(1-4):254-71. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00594-7.
21. Gilbert RO. Statistical methods for environmental pollution monitoring: John Wiley & Sons. 1987. https://doi.org 9780471288787, 0471288780
22. Sen PK. Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's tau. J. Am. Stud. 1968; 63(324):1379-89. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1968.10480934
23. Hirsch RM, Slack JR, Smith RA. Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality data. Water. Resour. Res. 1982; 18(1):107-21. https://doi.org/10.1029/WR018i001p00107
24. Vafakhah M, Bakhshi TM, Khazaei M. Analysis of rainfall and discharge trend in Kashafrood Watershed.Geography. 2013; 29(10): 21-27. https://doi.org/10.22111/GDIJ.2013.123
25. Bihrat Ö, Bayazit M. The power of statistical tests for trend detection. Turk. J. Earth. Sci. 2003; 27(4):247-51. https://doi.org/10.3906/sag-1205-120
26. Hamed KH, Rao AR. A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data. J. HYDROL. Journal of Hydrology. 1998; 204(1-4):182-96. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(97)00125-X
27. Alijani B, Mahmoudi P, Chogan A. A study of annual and seasonal precipitation trends in Iran using a nonparametric method [Sen’s slope estimator]. J. Climate. 2012; 9(3):106-117. https://sid.ir/paper/401943/en
28. Masoudi M, Elhaeesahar M. Trend assessment of climate changes in Khuzestan Province, Iran. Natural Environment Change. 2016; 2(2):143-52. https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:56465792
29. Nazeri Tahrudi M, Ahmadi F, Khalili K. Evaluation the trend and trend chang point of Urmia Lake Basin precipitation. Water and Soil. 2017; (2):644-59. https://doi.org/10.22067/jsw.v31i2.55338 ‌
30. Rahimi D, Khoshhal Dastjerdi J, Rahimi D. Trend analysis of maximum flood in the Karkheh basin. Journal of Natural Environmental Hazards. 2020; 9(26):43-58. https://doi.org/10.22111/JNEH.2020.32258.1579
31. Moradi M, Bazrafshan O, Bahremand A, Esmailpour Y. Assessing the relationship between the trend of some climatic factors on surface runoff in the watersheds of the southern coast of Iran. Watershed Management. 2018; 119:79-92. https://wmrj.areeo.ac.ir/article_117868_fc0bf1ef288162db587f6b8522b8d2b6.pdf
32. Pirnia A, Habibnejad Roshan M, Solaimani K. Investigation of precipitation and temperature changes in Caspian sea southern coasts and its comparison with changes in northern hemisphere and global scales. Watershed Management. 2015; 6(11):90-100. http://jwmr.sanru.ac.ir/article-1-495-fa.html
ECOPERSIA
Volume 12, Issue 3 - Serial Number 49
September 2024
Pages 219-231