Antecedent Rainfall Thresholds for the Triggering of Deep-Seated Landslides (Case study: Chaharmahal & Bakhtiari Province, Iran)

Authors
A. R. Nafarzadegan 1
A. Talebi 1
H. Malekinezhad 1
N. Emami 2
1 Yazd University, Yazd
2 Res. Cent. of Agri. and Nat. Res., Shahrekord
Abstract
Rainfall is recognized as one of the main triggering factors of landslides. Researchers have long attempted to determine the amount of precipitation required to trigger slope failures. One of the landslide zones in Iran is Chaharmahal & Bakhtiari province where many landslides cause high casualties in recent decades. It is significant that most of these landslides occur after a rainy period. Thus, determination of rainfall thresholds in this province seems to be necessary as the first step to present an effective landslide warning system. In this research, we tried to introduce some antecedent rainfall thresholds for deep-seated landslides. The antecedent periods considered for the events examined in this study were 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 28 and 30 days. Since most of landslides occurred by cumulative rainfall for more than 10 days, the results of 5 days and shorter time periods appear not logically connected. We have also established rainfall thresholds for the 15-day antecedent period and 2, 3 and 5 days rainfall events. Results indicate that for 10 to 30 days antecedent periods, mean total rainfall needed to induce landslides varies between about 140 and 280 mm. Finally, we recommend more research on relation between rainfall characteristics and destabilization of different soil classes in the study area (especially clayey-marly deposits).
Keywords
Antecedent rainfall
Chaharmahal & Bakhtiari
Landslide
Threshold
Aleotti, P.A. warning system for rainfall-induced shallow failures. Eng. Geol., 2004; 73: 247-265.
Cannon, S.H. and Ellen S.D. Rainfall conditions for abundant debris avalanches, San Francisco Bay region, California. Calif. Geol., 1985; 38: 267-272.
Canuti, P., Focardi, P. and Garzonio, C.A. Correlation between rainfall and landslides. Bull. Int. Assoc. Eng. Geol., 1985; 32: 49-54.
Chaharmahal & Bakhtiari Meteorological Administration, [Online] available from: http://www.chaharmahalmet.ir/en/c3.asp, (Retrieved July 12, 2011).
Chleborad, A.F. Preliminary method for anticipating the occurrence of precipitation-induced landslides in Seattle, Washington. US Geological Survey, Open-File Report, 00-469. 2000.
Chleborad, A.F. Preliminary Evaluation of a Precipitation Threshold for Anticipating the Occurrence of Landslides in the Seattle, Washington Area. US Geological Survey, Open-File Report, 03-463. 2003.
Corominas, J. and Moya, J. Reconstructing recent landslide activity in relation to rainfall in the Llobregat River basin, Eastern Pyrenees, Spain. Geomorphology. 1999; 30: 79-93.
Crosta, G.B. and Frattini, P. Rainfall thresholds for triggering soil slips and debris flow, In: Proceeding of 2nd EGS Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms, Siena. 2001; 1: 463-487.
Crozier, M.J. Prediction of rainfall-triggered landslides: a test of the antecedent water status model. Earth Surf. Process. Landforms. 1999; 24: 825-833.
Dahal, R.K. and Hasegawa, S. Representative rainfall thresholds for landslides in the Nepal Himalaya. Geomorphology. 2008; 100: 429-443.
De Martonne, E. Une nouvelle fonction climatologique: L’indice d’aridité. La Meteorologie. 1926; 449-458.
De Vita P. Fenomeni di instabilità della coperture piroclastiche dei monti Lattari, di Sarno e di Salerno (Campania) ed analisi degli eventi pluviometrici determinanti. Quaderni di Geologia Applicata. 2000; 7: 213-235.
Emami, N. Investigation and prioritization of effective factors in mass movement, In: Proceeding of 2th national conference of land movement and methods of their hazard control, Kordestan, Iran. 1998; 111-138. (In Persian).
Gabet, E.J., Burbank, D.W., Putkonen, J.K., Pratt-Sitaula, B.A. and Oiha, T. Rainfall thresholds for landsliding in the Himalayas of Nepal. Geomorphology. 2004; 63: 131-143.
Giannecchini, R. Relationship between rainfall and landslides in the southern Apuan Alps (Italy). Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 2006; 6: 357-364.
Glade, T., Crozier, M.J. and Smith, P. Applying probability determination to refine landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds using an empirical Antecedent Daily Rainfall Model. Pure. Appl. Geophys., 2000; 157: 1059-1079.
Guzzeti, F., Peruccacci, S., Rossi, M. and Stark, C. P. Rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslides in central and southern Europe, Meteorol Atmos Phys. 2007; 98: 239-267.
Jakob, M. and Weatherly, H. A hydroclimatic threshold for landslide initiation on the North Shore Mountains of Vancouver, British Columbia, Geomorphology. 2003; 54: 137-156.
Kim, S.K., Hong, W.P. and Kim, Y.M. Prediction of rainfall-triggered landslides in Korea. In: Proceeding of Landslides, Rotterdam. 1991; 2: 989-994.
Laprade, W.T., Kirkland, T.E., Nashem, W.D. and Robertson, C.A. Seattle landslide study. Shannon and Wilson Inc, Internal Report W-7992-01. 2000.
Lumb, P. Slope Failure in Hong Kong. Engineering Geology. 1975; 8: 31-65.
Sengupta, A., Gupta, S. and Anbarasu, K. Rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslide at Lanta Khola in north Sikkim, India, Nat. Hazards. 2010; 52:31-42.
Sidle, R.C. Using Weather and Climate Information for Landslide Prevention and Mitigation, International Workshop on Climate and Land Degradation, Arusha, Tanzania. 2006; 11-15.
Talebi, A., Uijlenhoet, R. and Troch, P.A.A low-dimensional physically-based model of hydrologic control on shallow landsliding in complex hillslopes. Earth Surf. Process. Landforms. 2008; DOI: 10.1002/esp.1648.
Terlien, M.T.J. The determination of statistical and deterministic hydrological landslide-triggering thresholds. Envi. Geol., 1998; 35 (2-3.): 124-130.
Van Asch, Th.W.J., Buma, J. and Van Beek, L.P.H. A view on some hydrological triggering systems in landslides. Geomorphology. 1999; 30: 25-32.
White, I.D., Mottershead, D.N. and Harrison, J.J. Environmental Systems, 2nd Edition. London: Chapman & Hall. 1996; 616 pp.
Zˆezere, J.L., Trigo, R.M. and Trigo, I.F. Shallow and deep landslides induced by rainfall in the Lisbon region (Portugal): assessment of relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 2005; 5: 331-344.